R&I Insights: Reporting Season Standouts

US After the recent rally in US equities over the past 2 weeks the market is currently consolidating the gains. The S&P500 has rallied over 8% from its lows on the 9th February and this consolidation/ retracement is healthy for the market. For the bull scenario to continue the S&P500 will need to either hold [...]

R&I Insights: Rage Against The Machine

US The S&P 500 has fallen over 10% from peak to trough, clearly in correction territory. The current correction in US equities is constructive for the market going forward for the following reasons: The S&P500 has re-tested and respected long term support The market, overbought before the correction, is now at a level that is [...]

R&I Insights: Sentiment Awfully Good

Happy New Year and welcome to the first R&I Weekly Update for 2018. 2018 has started where 2017 finished off: US equities breaking to new highs on the back of tax reform and positive sentiment. The US is heading into the 4th quarter 2017 earnings season where the focus will be on the year ahead. [...]

R&I Insights: “I Feel Good”

First of all, we wish you and your family a very merry and safe holiday season and hope you have a great break. I hope you have enjoyed reading the weekly report as much as I have enjoyed writing it. I hope the report has added value to your portfolio over the year. The weekly [...]

R&I Insights: Don’t Confuse Brains with a Bull Market

US Federal Reserve meeting minutes released reported that many participants believed that a rise in rates in the short term was the best course of action in light of inflation being subdued. In addition to this many believed the economy to be on a growth path that was above trend and expressed confidence in the [...]

R&I Insights: US Overbought as the ASX Breaks 6,000

US US stocks had their first decline in 9 weeks as investors became concerned about the lack of progress in passing tax reform. Issues surfaced around how deep the tax cuts may be and how long they may take to be approved. As noted over the past couple of weeks, short term, the index is [...]

R&I Insights: Nickel & Oil Breakout

US US payrolls rose 261k in October and the jobless rate fell to the lowest since 2000. Average hourly earnings were little changed, while the labour force participation rate fell considerably, where over 5 million people dropped out of the work force. The US Federal Reserve kept rates on hold at 1.00% - 1.25% increasing [...]

R&I Insights: The “Biggest Surprise in the Economy”

US Fed chair Janet Yellen at the G30 conference said that she expects US rates to be gradually increased as the US economy continues on a growth path. She made the call that lower than expected inflation was the “biggest surprise in the economy”. “My best guess is that these soft readings will not persist, [...]

R&I Insights: Finally: The ASX Breaks

US Earnings season kicked off in the US last week with Citigroup and J.P. Morgan both releasing results. Both beat analysts expectations, Citigroup by cutting costs and J.P. Morgan by improving margins on lending. Both companies’ trading revenue across equities and fixed interest fell from a year ago, although Citigroup posted higher than expected trading [...]

R&I Insights: The Bubble Galaxy

US The number of workers in the US fell in September by 33,000 to mark the first fall since 2010. The fall was due to hurricanes Harvey and Irma. Near 1.5 million people were unable to work due to bad weather over the month which is the most since 1996. The unemployment rate fell to [...]

R&I Insights: The End of Year Landscape

END OF QUARTER/ END OF YEAR With the last quarter of the calendar year upon us there are a number of issues you need to be aware of. The December period is seasonally a strong month for ASX equities and in previous years momentum has performed well over this period. In light of this, we [...]

R&I Insights: Goldilocks, Sweet Spots and Classic Late Cycle

US The Federal Open Market committee in its statement last week that October will be the start date for the shrinking of the $4.5 trillion balance sheet. The policy makers left interest rates at 1 - 1.25% as expected. “We continue to expect that the ongoing strength of the economy will warrant gradual increases in [...]

R&I Insights: Weekly Market Update 11th September 2017

With holidays ending in the northern hemisphere, investors are getting back to their desks. With the S&P500 trading near all time highs and around resistance, it’s worth looking at how September performs. I’ve mentioned in the past that this period is seasonally weak and as you can see in the chart below, September is by [...]

R&I Insights: Gold and China Breakout

The portfolios August 2017 performance is as follows: The R&I ASX200 portfolio returned +5.95% vs the ASX200 -0.01% The R&I S&P500 portfolio returned +3.22% vs the S&P500 -0.02% August 2017 Key takeaways: The ASX200 tested support around 5665 over July and importantly respected this level The banking and telco sector was the catalyst for the [...]

R&I Insights: Weekly Market Update 28th August 2017

As we are rebalancing portfolios this week, this report will be a shortened version and subscribers will get a more detailed report on Friday. US Meetings in Jackson Hole by central bankers failed to give any real insight on monetary policy and instead rhetoric was around regulatory reform. This lack of insight sent the Dollar [...]

R&I Insights: Metals: The Trend is Your Friend

US The bull market correction continued this week with the S&P500 experiencing further weakness amidst a backdrop of weaker volumes due to the holiday season. This is a necessary correction in an overall positive trend. Markets ebb and flow and the current bout of weakness is constructive for the overall picture going forward. This correction [...]

R&I Insights: VIX Spikes, Gold Breaks

With increasing tensions between the US and North Korea, the US VIX spiked to near one year highs last week as investors increased insurance to cover downside risks. VIX Gold, which has been winding up in a tight range for months, broke to the upside on safe haven buying. The move, has breached the downtrend [...]

R&I Insights: The Chinese “Gray Rhino”

Welcome to the new week. This week, we have Australian CPI data for the June quarter followed by a speech by RBA Governor, Philip Lowe on Wednesday. In the US, the Fed has their interest rate announcement, also on Wednesday, where we expect no change in rates. MINING CONFERENCE Last week, I was a guest [...]

R&I Insights: Call for Last Drinks

Welcome to the new financial year. We look forward to helping you protect your portfolio and profit in the year ahead. A reminder that you can now buy and sell Australian & international shares through R&I. You will receive access to our Model Portfolio’s, our research and the best of our ideas. Our focus is [...]

R&I Insights: Dreaming of Amazon

US Amazon this week announced a $13.7bln deal where it will acquire organic grocery retailer Whole Foods. It’s by far the largest acquisition by Amazon to date and points to what market the tech giant will be disrupting next. Being able to get same day delivery for groceries will be a game changer within this [...]

R&I Insights: Showdown – The Market vs The Fed

US The Federal Reserve hiked rates again this week for the third time in six months. “Near-term risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced, but the committee is monitoring inflation developments closely,” the Federal Open Market Committee said. Data released showed that price inflation slowed for the fourth straight month. But the Fed sees [...]

R&I Insights: Both the Bulls and Bears are Winning

In case you didn't see the email during the week: Through our fund's management business we engage with various financial institutions, and as a result, we gain access to investment opportunities not available to the general investing public. A number of these we have taken up and offered to our network of investors. To further [...]

R&I Insights: Synchronised Global Growth and the ASX

The portfolios May 2017 performance is as follows: The R&I S&P500 portfolio returned +7.22% vs the S&P500 +0.98% The R&I ASX200 portfolio returned +1.51% vs the ASX200 -3.89% US: Being well placed in the tech sector contributed to the returns this month. A number of stocks displaying strong momentum either broke to record or multi [...]

Blue Skies in the US

US Both the S&P500 and the NASDAQ broke to record highs this week. We are in the mature stages of an equity bull market rally. From experience, this is where strong returns occur. Momentum is positive, growth is synchronous across major economies, inflation is picking up and central banks are focused on normalising rates. To [...]

Australian Banks: Hits and Misses

US GDP US GDP figures for the first quarter of 2017 came in at 0.7% after rising 2.1% in the previous quarter. The fall was due to seasonal factors such as warm weather, volatility in inventories and issues with the  Commerce Department’s seasonal adjustment of growth data. Looking at first quarter GDP in  the US [...]

Earnings Drive NASDAQ to Record Highs

US TAX REFORM Trumps tax plan was released this week as a one page, 250 word paper which gave little detail to excite markets. The release was an opening statement or offer from which to negotiate. Reductions in personal income and corporate tax rates plus repatriation of foreign earnings has been expected by the markets [...]

The Correction We’ve Been Waiting For?

US Geopolitical risks and Trumps ability to legislate have ignited the current correction in markets. The sell off has been quite orderly as the S&P500 has corrected just over 3% since the March 1st highs. If the situation between the US and North Korea escalates we will see further downside. With regards to the fiscal [...]

Geopolitics takes the Stage

Geopolitical tensions took centre stage this week as the US moves carriers off the Korean peninsula and request Russia to abandon support for the Syrian leadership. The uncertainty surrounding these issues will hold markets back until a resolution is achieved. The current political challenges are a distraction for Trump from the fiscal stimulus that markets [...]

R&I Insights: Trump Gets Trigger Happy

The U.S. launched a cruise missile attack against Syria two days after Bashar al-Assad’s regime used poison gas to kill scores of civilians, an act that drew international condemnation and that President Donald Trump called “an affront to humanity.” The strike early Friday morning in Syria targeted hangars, planes and fuel tanks at one Syrian [...]

Weekly Market Update 31st March 2017

  UK “This is a historic moment from which there can be no turning back”, British Prime Minister Theresa May said as she addressed parliament this week. The address came after the UK formally invoked Article 50 which puts in place the process for the UK to leave the European Union. The Pound vs. the [...]

Weekly Market Update 24th March 2017

  US Equity markets corrected over 1% during the week. Not since October 2016 has the market fell more than 1% in a day. Short term support levels in the S&P500 were broken signifying more short-term downside risk.   Concerns over Trumps ability to repeal Obamacare surfaced as Conservatives claim they have the votes to [...]

Weekly Market Update 17th March 2017

Focus Back on Fiscal   US Markets took the Fed’s expected interest rate hike in its stride this week with major indices rallying after the announcement. Investors who had been waiting in the wings until after the hike started buying the market. Miners were up 5%, Steel companies +4% and gold rallied. Bond yields hit [...]

Weekly Market Update 10th March 2017

  US Rates rises in the US are near a 100% probability for next week's Federal Reserve decision. Private payroll data this week blew expectations out of the water adding to the argument for rate rises.   ADP’s private payrolls report this week was stronger than the market expected.     Bond yields have risen [...]

Weekly Market Update 3rd March 2017

US The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded above 21,000 for the first time this week. Confidence in a stronger global economic picture fuelled the rise. US Bond yields rose in anticipation of higher rates in the US. The potential for a hike in March is now a real possibility. Short covering also fuelled the rally. Shorts [...]

Weekly Market Update 24th February 2017

US This week, the Dow put together its longest run of record prices since 1987 to close above 20,800. It was the 10th consecutive day of record prices. Federal Reserve Board minutes suggest the central bank believe they can increase rates gradually over the coming months. The chances of a rate hike in March are [...]

Weekly Market Update 18th February 2017

US US markets traded at record highs (again) this week. With over 70% of companies in the S&P500 having reported earnings: 67% beat estimates, 21% disappointed; and 12% were in line with expectations With markets continuing to climb to new highs and with the steep ascent of the rally,  I ponder how much of the [...]

Weekly Market Update 10th February 2017

  US Markets always climb a wall of worry and that is what we’re experiencing at the moment. There are uncertainties such as the US/ China relationship and the upcoming European elections (amongst others), though this is amidst a backdrop of improved economic conditions and a reflationary environment. Currently, there are catalysts for the market [...]

Weekly Market Update 3rd February 2017

Friday Market Wrap Key Themes With the new month let us reiterate the key themes that you need to be aware of in markets. US - decreased taxes, ramp up in infrastructure spend, less regulation/ uncertainty around protectionism and immigration Resource stocks to improve on improving economic conditions and increasing profits Rising interest rates - [...]

Weekly Market Update 27th January 2017

Friday Market Wrap US Major US Indices traded at record highs this week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded at 20,000 points to break out of its short-term trading range. The S&P500 broke through resistance at 2380 to trade at a record high of 2300. US Factory Growth hit its highest level in near two [...]

Weekly Market Update 20th January 2017

Friday Market Wrap US markets continue to trade under technical resistance and within the short term range I mentioned last week. Talking heads seem to focussed on the Trump inauguration this week but I am unsure of what Trump can say that will cause the US market to break to the upside in the short [...]